Broadly keeping its growth forecast for India unchanged, International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that rising from 5.8 per cent in 2014, the Indian economy will grow at 6.3 percent in 2015 and 6.5 percent in 2016.
According to the World Economic Report update released by the IMF, India's growth rate was 5.8 percent in 2014 against China's 7.4 percent.
India's growth rate in 2013 was 5 percent as against China's 7.8 percent. The IMF said India is projected to grow at 6.3 percent in 2015 and 6.5 percent in 2016, when it is likely to cross China's projected growth rate of 6.3 percent.
An IMF official said the effect of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government's economic reform would be difficult to predict as these are structural reforms and are growing gradually over the medium term.
According to the latest IMF report, the weaker external demand in India is offset by the boost to the terms of trade from lower oil prices and a pickup in industrial and investment activity after policy reforms.
Global growth will receive a boost from lower oil prices, which reflect to an important extent higher supply, the report said.
But this boost is projected to be more than offset by negative factors, including investment weakness as adjustment to diminished expectations about medium-term growth continues in many advanced and emerging market economies.
Global growth in 2015-16 is projected at 3.5 and 3.7 percent, a downward revision of 0.3 percent relative to the October 2014 World Economic Outlook (WEO).
The revision reflect a reassessment of prospects in Russia, China, Japan, Euro area and weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. However, the United States is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised.
Investment growth in China declined in the third quarter of 2014, and leading indicators point to a further slowdown. The authorities are now expected to put greater weight on reducing vulnerabilities from recent rapid credit and investment growth and hence the forecast assumes less of a policy response to the underlying moderation, according to the report.
Slower growth in China will also have important regional effects, which partly explains the downward revisions to growth in much of emerging Asia.
Among major advanced economies, growth in the U.S. rebounded ahead of expectations after the contraction in the first quarter of 2014, and unemployment declined further, while inflation pressure stayed more muted, also reflecting the dollar appreciation and the decline in oil prices.
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